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Sessional Research Programme 2014/2015

  • Expert judgement. 8 June 2015

    Presented to an IFoA Sessional Meeting in Edinburgh on 8 June 2015, and to the IAA Colloquium in Oslo on 10 June 2015

    Abstract:
    Expert judgement has been used since the actuarial profession was founded. In the past, there has often been a lack of transparency regarding the use of expert judgement, even though those judgements could have a very significant impact on the outputs of calculations and the decisions made by organisations. The lack of transparency has a number of dimensions including the nature of the underlying judgements, as well as the process used to derive those judgements. This paper aims to provide a practical framework regarding expert judgement processes, and how those processes may be validated. It includes a worked example illustrating how the process could be used for setting a particular assumption. It concludes with some suggested tools for use within expert judgement. Although primarily focused on the insurance sector (including consideration of the impact of Solvency II), the proposed process framework could be applied more widely without the need for significant changes.

  • Sustainability in the financial system. 11 May 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 11 May 2015, Staple Inn, London. Research commissioned by the Resource and Environment Board

    Abstract:
    Much actuarial work is underpinned by the use of economic models derived from mainstream academic theories of finance and economics which treat money as being a neutral medium of exchange. The sustainability of a financial system whose understanding is based on a limited view of the role of money has increasingly been subject to criticism. In order to identify needed research programmes to address such criticisms and improve these disciplines, we sought to understand the current state of knowledge in economics and finance concerning the link between monetary and financial factors and sustainability.

    We have approached this through a search for relevant literature published in the highest-rated academic journals in economics, finance and the social sciences for titles and abstracts containing both references to the financial system on the one hand and sustainability and environmental factors on the other.

    The systematic search of a universe of 125 journals and 355,000 articles yielded the finding that surprisingly few research papers jointly address these concepts. Nevertheless, we find that current research shares a broad consensus that the implications of the growth-oriented economic model results in an increasingly interconnected and fragile financial system whose participants are not incentivised to fully recognise the natural environment and resource constraints. We further observe that the prescriptions offered are relatively limited and small-scale in their outlook and that there is a vital need for further research, particularly for actuaries who are required to take a longer term outlook.

    The Resource and Environment Board has supported this work with two key objectives: first to identify research that may have direct application to actuarial work and, second, to identify gaps in academic research that would help drive the IFoA's own research agenda. With this in mind there are three further areas of potential actuarial research. These are the policy aim of pursuing growth without limit within a finite ecosystem; discount factors as the primary means of capital allocation and investment decisions; and the use of GDP as the key metric of economic activity and success. We also conclude that further academic research is urgently needed to understand the sustainability of the banking and monetary system.

    Keywords:
    Literature review; Banking; Finance; Monetary policy; Sustainability; Green economy; Actuarial science

  • Model risk. 23 March 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 23 March 2015. Paper by the Model Risk Working Party, presented by N Mojaria

    Abstract:
    With the increasing use of complex quantitative models in applications throughout the financial world, model risk has become a major concern. Such risk is generated by the potential inaccuracy and inappropriate use of models in business applications, which can lead to substantial financial losses and reputational damage. In this paper, we deal with the management and measurement of model risk. First, a model risk framework is developed, adapting concepts such as risk appetite, monitoring, and mitigation to the particular case of model risk. The usefulness of such a framework for preventing losses associated with model risk is demonstrated through case studies. Second, we investigate the ways in which different ways of using and perceiving models within an organisation both lead to different model risks. We identify four distinct model cultures and argue that in conditions of deep model uncertainty, each of those cultures makes a valuable contribution to model risk governance. Thus, the space of legitimate challenges to models is expanded, such that, in addition to a technical critique, operational and commercial concerns are also addressed. Third, we discuss through the examples of proxy modelling, longevity risk, and investment advice, common methods and challenges for quantifying model risk. Difficulties arise in mapping model errors to actual financial impact. In the case of irreducible model uncertainty, it is necessary to employ a variety of measurement approaches, based on statistical inference, fitting multiple models, and stress and scenario analysis.

    Keywords:
    Model; Model Risk; Model Error; Model Uncertainty; Risk Culture

  • Considerations of State Pension Age in the UK. 16 March 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 16 March 2015, Edinburgh. Paper presented by Rob Hammond, Steven Baxter and Mark Sadler.

    Abstract:
    State Pension Age (SPA) is an issue of topical interest in the UK at the time of writing due to the Government’s plans to link SPA at future dates to estimates of the projected longevity of the population. This paper considers the background to the current position, how the linkage is proposed to work, other factors that may need to be considered and some changes in the proposed State pension regime that could be alternatives to, or complementary with, a changing SPA.

    Keywords:
    State Pension Age; State pensions; Life expectancy;

  • The link between classical reserving and granular reserving through double chain ladder and its extensions. 2 February 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 2 February 2015, Staple Inn, London. Paper presented by Jens Nielson, Professor of Actuarial Science, Cass Business School

  • Forecasting death rates using exogenous determinants. 26 January 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 26 January 2015. Paper presented to the Society of Northern Ireland Actuaries (SoNIA) by Declan French and Colin O'Hare.

  • Towards the optimal reserving process. 19 January 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 19 January 2015. Paper by the Toward the Optimal Reserving Process (TORP) Working Party presented by Neil Bruce

    Abstract:
    Our principal focus in this paper is on ways that a Fast Close process (or indeed any reserving process) can be structured to maximise the value added within the process given the time and resource available. This builds on the use of actual vs. expected techniques investigated in our previous paper, and also looks at forces external to the reserving function that may derail smooth progress. We highlight a number of practical ways that the balance can be restored in favour of adding value rather than crunching numbers. This paper forms the second in the TORP series.

    Keywords:
    Fast Close, TORP, Reserving, Actual vs. expected

  • The benefits and challenges for insurers considering non-traditional investments. 19 January 2015

    Sessional Research Meeting, 19 January 2015, Staple Inn, London. Paper by the Non-traditional Investments Working Party

    Abstract:
    Life insurers have historically relied upon investment markets as a key source of profit and crucially have been able to do this whilst embarking on relatively ‘vanilla’ investment strategies. In the current low yield environment, broadening their investment horizons is critical to maintaining profitability.

    This paper summarises some relevant external literature and the working party’s own research in understanding the potential benefits and pitfalls for insurers seeking to invest in non-traditional assets.

    The objective of this paper is to help educate and promote understanding by all (the many) relevant parties. In doing so, we hope to help organisations to achieve some further economic success for the ultimate benefit of society.

    Whilst this paper has primarily been written from the perspective of a life insurer, we hope it will be of interest to a much wider audience. Many of the asset classes considered here are relevant to general insurers, pension funds and the wider capital markets.

    It is very important to note that the paper does not contain investment advice and the analysis represents the views of the individuals and the working party and not the companies which they represent or the Profession. The paper does not make any comment as to the suitability (or otherwise) of specific investments for particular investors.

    Keywords:
    Non-traditional assets, alternative assets, investments, ALM, loans, infrastructure, PPP, PFI, social housing, real estate, residential mortgage, commercial mortgage, ground rent, student accommodation, asset backed securities, ABS, RMBS, CMBS, aircraft lease, emerging markets debt, high yield, private placement, private equity, hedge fund, insurance linked security, ILS.

  • Longevity basis risk methodology. 8 December 2014

    Executive Summary:
    This paper summarises the work to date of Cass Business School and Hymans Robertson LLP in relation to assessing longevity basis risk. This work was commissioned by the Longevity Basis Risk Working Group (LBRWG) and funded by the Life and Longevity Markets Association (LLMA) and Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA). The LBRWG was formed by the LLMA and IFoA in December 2011 with a remit to investigate how to provide a market-friendly means of analysing longevity basis risk.

    The key outputs of this work are:

    • for modelling books which are ‘self-credible’ (i.e. a large number of lives & sufficient back history) a shortlist of ‘best of breed’ 2 –population models (specifically the M7-M5 model, or in some situations the CAE+Cohorts model);
    • for modelling the majority of books which are not self-credible, an alternative, easy to apply “characterisation approach”;
    • a clear decision tree framework to aid the selection of an appropriate methodology for assessing basis risk from those mentioned above;
    • a clear recognition of the importance of choice of time series underpinning any 2- (or multi-) population model

    These outputs are backed up by an extensive body of research, including:

    • a review of how trends have varied between different (sub) populations in the past, covering both the highlights of existing literature and additional research based on the Club Vita dataset of UK occupational pension schemes;
    • a review, classification and general formulation of two-population models that could be considered for modelling longevity basis risk;
    • a thorough and systematic assessment of candidate two-population mortality models to identify those which provide the most suitable balance between flexibility, simplicity, parsimony, goodness-of-fit to data and robustness;
    • case studies, review of key challenges and consideration of practical issues in relation to both the M7-M5 model and the characterisation approach.

    Keywords:

  • The effect of model uncertainty on the pricing of critical illness insurance. 24 November 2014

    Sessional Research Meeting, 18 November 2014. Paper presented by George Streftaris

  • Quantitative approaches to model uncertainty. 29 October 2014

    Sessional Research Meeting, 29 October 2014, at Staple Inn Hall, London. Presented by Andreas Tsanakas, Cass Business School, City University, and Andrew Smith, Deloitte

  • Adverse selection in a start-up long-term care insurance market. 22 September 2014

    Sessional Research Meeting, 22 September 2014. Les Mayhew, Cass Business School.

Contact Details

If you have any questions or wish to discuss any aspect of our awards and Honorary Fellowships, please contact the Public Affairs team on:

research@actuaries.org.uk

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Events calendar

  • ARC Event on Periodical Payment Orders

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ
    20 February 2019

    Few spaces available

    The IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) is convening a research event on the subject of Periodical Payment Orders (PPOs) in late February 2019.

  • IFRS17 Workshop, 21 February

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    21 February 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA Logo for EventsThe Life Board and Life Lifelong Learning Sub-committee are running this half-day workshop on IFRS 17.

    They will provide a detailed understanding of the key concepts of the standard, as well as discuss how implementation will impact people, process and systems.  They will also share views on how the new standard will change the way insurers are viewed in the market, and share perspectives from within and outside of the profession.

     

  • Data Science: Opportunities for Actuaries

    The IFoA's first virtual event   
    26 February 2019 - 28 February 2019

    Spaces available

    The IFoA are launching their first virtual conference on the topic of Data Science, that is free to attend. This is an exciting and forward thinking move to reach members all over the world and to share knowledge and discuss developments and techniques within data science.

  • Leicester Actuarial Science Society presents the 5th Annual Worshipful Company of Actuaries Lecture

    The University of Leicester, Ken Edwards Lecture Theatre 3 (see map and directions)
    27 February 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA President-Elect, John Taylor will discuss his work on 'robo advice' and the implications of technology for the future of the profession, but also his thoughts about the immediate priorities for the actuarial profession based on his first year with the Presidential Team. 

    The Worshipful Company of Actuaries will also be explaining their work and presenting two prizes: one each to the best performing 2nd year and 3rd year BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science student at the University during the session.

  • ARC: ERM Results Launch Event

    Staple inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    28 February 2019

    Fully booked.

     

    This event is now full. We do operate a waiting system for this event should there become availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.

     

  • SIAS Event: Challenges and Opportunities for Actuaries Working in Data Science

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    4 March 2019

    Spaces available

    This talk will present examples of the use of data science in the General Insurance and Health and Care practice areas. It will highlight some of the opportunities and challenges for actuaries in using the latest data science techniques in these fields.

    1. Lisa Balboa will present on using predictive analytics to improve health care forecasting.
    2. Alexander Hanks will present a practical example of training a neural network to fit curves to general insurance claims data.
  • Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - London

    Ect Venues, 200 Aldersgate, St. Pauls, London EC1A 4HD
    5 March 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA event AllThis event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018.  Book now to ensure your place.

  • Life and F&I One Day Workshop

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    11 March 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA Event Logo AllThis cross-practice event for Life actuaries and those in finance and investments roles offers high-quality CPD with a series of thought-provoking presentations covering economics and financial markets, responsible investment, CMA review outcome, FCA requirements, asset analytics, and much more.

  • Spring Lecture 2019, Edinburgh - Sir John Curtice

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    13 March 2019

    Fully booked.

    In conjunction with the Scottish BoardEdinburgh is now full. However, you can still register here to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world. 
    We do operate a waiting system for each of the Edinburgh and London venues should there be availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
  • Spring Lecture 2019, Live stream at Staple Inn - Professor Sir John Curtice

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    13 March 2019

    Fully booked.

     
    In conjunction with the Scottish BoardFollowing the popularity of this year’s Spring Lecture, delivered by Professor Sir John Curtice, an additional venue has been sourced for Members to attend a London Livestream event at the Lloyd's building. Please register here. Alternatively, you can still register here  to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world. 
     
  • Sessional Meeting: Investment risk for long term investors - risk measurement approaches

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    18 March 2019

    Spaces available

    The term ‘investment risk’ is often used loosely, and frequently confused with the notion of short term price volatility, particularly for equity instruments. For the long term investor, however, what is most apposite is the ability to meet future real cash flows as they become due.

  • Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - Edinburgh

    Apex Grassmarket Hotel, 31-35 Grassmarket, Edinburgh EH1 2HS
    19 March 2019

    Spaces available

    This event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018.  Book now to ensure your place.

  • KSS event - FinTech and The Actuarial Profession

    Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
    20 March 2019

    Spaces available

    This KSS talk from FinTech Scotland's CEO will explore the mission to create an integrated Fintech ecosystem through provision of funding, support, infrastructure and talent that recognises and responds to the needs of all stakeholders - and the overarching aim for Scotland to be one of the top 5 Fintech global leaders by 2020.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (26 March 19)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    26 March 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (16 April 19)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    16 April 2019

    Fully booked.

    Please register here to join the wait list

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • TIGI 2019 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)

    Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Place, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4LE
    25-26 April 2019
    Spaces available

    This General Insurance CPD offering has been changed from former years of individual one day seminars to include individual sessions for IFRS 17, Pricing, Capital Modelling and Reserving over a two-day event  packaged as Technical Issues in General Insurance, providing attendees with a varied program . The event is suitable for anyone who works, or are interested, in these areas.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (30 April 19)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    30 April 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2019, Chengdu

    Crowne Plaza Chengdu Panda Garden, Poly Park 198, No. 1980 ShuLong Avenue,Xindu District, Chengdu
    09-10 May 2019
    Spaces available

    IfoA Logo for eventsOffering a diverse selection of plenary sessions and cross-practice workshops, the annual Asia Conference is the perfect opportunity to discover and discuss current and developing actuarial topics in Asia, whilst providing excellent opportunity to grow your network of contacts.

  • CILA 2019

    30 Euston Square, London NW1 2FB
    14 May 2019

    Spaces available

    CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual Life calendar. It is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe.

  • Risk and Investment one day Conference 2019

    Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, Strand, London WC2N 5HX
    20-21 May 2019
    Spaces available

    This year's Risk and Investment Conference will be taking place at Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, London.

    To book your place click here.

     

  • Sessional Research Event - Saving for Retirement: Rules of Thumb

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    20 May 2019

    Spaces available

    How much does the average person need to save over a full working life to provide a decent retirement income? We call this the Lifetime Pension Contribution (LPC) and have attempted to quantify it.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (12 June 19)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    12 June 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • NED Event: Behavioural Finance and Boards

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    18 June 2019

    Spaces available

    Substantial work has been undertaken in the field of behavioural finance to explore the psychological factors affecting investment decisions made by individuals.  In contrast, “behavioural” factors (such as politics or human psychology) affecting decisions and actions made by institutional investors, such as insurers or pension schemes, are less understood.

  • Pensions Conference 2019

    Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD
    18-19 June 2019
    Spaces available

    This year's Pensions Conference will be taking place at the Bristol Marriott City Centre.

  • Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019

    Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ
    19 June 2019

    Spaces available

    CIGI will provide an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers, each providing their insight and knowledge on a range of topics.  The programme will be broad in nature, so will be of most value to those with some experience in the industry. 

  • Professional Skills Training - London (25 June 19)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    25 June 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.