In 1763 Richard Price published ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances [by] the late Rev. Bayes, F.R.S., communicated by Mr Price…’ in Philosophical Transactions [of the Royal Society] 53, pages 370-418. The essay, which Price claimed to have derived from papers he had found written by his late friend gave, rise to the significant branch of ‘Bayesian statistics’ though there has been debate about whether Bayes was the originator of the work. The notebook has been the subject of examination and published research and it contains a section on ‘probabilitas’ (sections 81-82) among other observations on astronomy and other mathematical topics.
As A.I. Dale concludes, ‘while this [the notebook] does not prove that “Bayes’s Theorem” is the discovery of our reverend friend [Thomas Bayes], it certainly indicates that the result was known to him some time before his death in 1761’.
As original work on probability theory, it is fitting that the notebook joins other leading texts on probability and other component works of 'actuarial analysis’ (demographic mortality data and calculations of compound interest) in the actuarial profession’s special library collections on actuarial science from the sixteenth century.
Interested readers can refer to papers below:
- Holland, J.D. (1962). The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS (1702-1761). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 125: 451-461.
- Dale, A.I. (1986). A newly discovered result of Thomas Bayes, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 35: 101-113.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2002). On some recently discovered manuscripts of Thomas Bayes. Historia Mathematica 29: 383-394.
- Bellhouse, D.R. (2004). The Reverend Thomas Bayes, FRS: a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth. Statistical Society 19(1): 3-43.
Related documents
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Equitable Life Assurance Society (ELAS) Archive 1762 - 1975 at Institute of Actuaries Library, London
30 September 2007 -
Equitable Life (ELAS) archive. Catalogue of launch display, 3 April 2007
2 April 2007 -
The Bayesian controversy in statistical inference
27 February 1967 -
Books, manuscripts and documents dating before 1901 in the libraries of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
1 July 2017
Contact Details
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We try to respond to email queries within one working day. Researcher access to historical resources may require notice in advance of visit in order to retrieve items from storage.
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Sessional Meeting - Climate Risk Reporting Practices by UK Insurance Firms and Pension Schemes
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Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019
Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ19 June 2019CIGI is a well-established one-day seminar designed to increase awareness and encourage discussion on a variety of topical issues across the general insurance industry.
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KSS Event: How to Stop Bad Data Driving out the Good (In an Age of Misuse, Misleadingness and Misinformation)
Edinburgh Hymans Robertson, 1 Exchange Place, Semple St, Edinburgh EH3 8BL20 June 2019Fake news, post truth, mistrust of experts... a familiar roll call of anxieties – or perhaps clichés – about our data rich world. They point to an underlying fear that in this data abundant age the bad data drives out the good and we are left with a broken public discourse.
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Cass Event – New Thinking about Deferred Annuities
Cass Business School, Executive Education Facilities 200 Aldersgate St, London EC1A 4HD21 June 2019Our motivation for discussing this important subject comes from some exciting recent research which has analysed the impact of behavioural factors on the decision to purchase an annuity. This work has shown that behavioural factors can explain the well-known low demand for immediate annuities but this research also identifies an important opportunity in relation to deferred annuities (DA). The research suggests that these factors lead to positive incentives to purchase a DA and that, for longer deferred periods, a DA could be an attractive product for both consumers and insurers.
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Sessional: Why the Pensions Dashboard is more than a data collection exercise
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IFoA/SAS Joint Professional Skills Training – Singapore
Room 903, NTUC Centre, Level 9, One Marina Boulevard, Singapore 01898925 June 2019The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and Singapore Actuarial Society (SAS) are organising a joint Professional Skills Training (PST) in Singapore. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Life, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - London (25 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ25 June 2019
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Webinar Series: Risk and Investment Conference 2019, 26 June
These are online webinar events.26 June 2019The IFoA’s Risk Management and Finance and Investment Boards are delighted to host a series of webinars covering a range of topical and trending topics ranging from climate related risks to Brexit.
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AGM and Presidential Address 2019 + Volunteer and Member Drinks Reception
The Hub Castlehill Edinburgh EH1 2NE26 June 2019
Notice is hereby given that the ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING of the INSTITUTE AND FACULTY OF ACTUARIES will be held at The Hub, Edinburgh on Wednesday 26 June 2019 at 16.30 (Preceded by tea from 16.00) and followed by a PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS given by John Taylor.
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IFAM event - Actuarial Teachers’ & Researchers’ Conference 2019
Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Department of Mathematical Sciences The University of Liverpool Mathematical Sciences Building Peach Street Liverpool, L69 7ZL27 June 2019 - 29 June 2019The Institute for Financial and Actuarial Mathematics (IFAM) at the University of Liverpool is pleased to host the 2019 Actuarial Teachers’ and Researchers’ Conference from 27-28 June 2019. This annual two-day event has been running annually now for many years, each time hosted by a different university, and provides all those interested in actuarial research and education a great opportunity to share their ideas and catch up on the latest developments.
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IFoA/ASM Joint Professional Skills Training – Kuala Lumpur
Menara AIA, Auditorium, 99 Jalan Ampang, 50450, Kuala Lumpur28 June 2019The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and Actuarial Society of Malaysia (ASM) are organising a joint Professional Skills Training (PST) in Kuala Lumpur. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Life, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA Event - Climate-related risk: facing up to the challenge
N/A28 June 2019Presented by Louise Pryor
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SIAS: The Impact of Air Pollution on Health and Life Expectancy
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 July 2019Air pollution has gained increasing attention lately. Nicola Oliver, head of longevity and mortality research for Medical Intelligence, will discuss not only the impacts of air pollution on health and life expectancy but also how as an industry we should be addressing it.
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Webinar: Opportunities for Actuaries in Banking
Online webinar10 July 2019The actuarial profession has much to offer the world of banking. In this webinar actuaries with experience in various fields of banking will talk about the opportunities there are in banking; describing the actuarial aspects of the work they do as well as other roles within their area of banking. -
Implications of 2019 IFRS 17 Exposure Draft
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ24 July 2019Towards the end of June, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) is expected to publish an Exposure Draft (ED) of limited changes to its insurance contracts standard IFRS 17, effective date 2022. To help IFoA members, the IFoA’s cross-practice Financial Reporting Group (FRG) is hosting an event at Staple Inn covering these developments.
For more information on the FRG please visit this webpage.
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NOCA event - IFRS17 methodology selection, consistency and impacts
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NoCA Event - Periodic Payment Orders (PPOs): the most extreme life risks are in non-life companies
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Behavioural Finance Research Launch
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ4 September 2019
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Deloitte Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG5 September 2019This KSS talk, presented by the FCA Head of Department in Scotland, will focus on the following 3 main areas:
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Sessional Research Event - Risk Margin Working Party
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London, WC1V 7QJ9 September 2019For life insurers in the UK, the risk margin is one of the most controversial aspects of the Solvency II regime. Following its implementation, the risk margin came under considerable criticism for being too large and too sensitive to interest rate movements. These criticisms are particularly valid for annuity business – such business is of great significance to the national system for retirement provision. This criticism has led to political interest, and the risk margin was a major element of the Treasury Committee inquiry into Solvency II.
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GIRO Conference 2019
EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE24-26 September 2019GIRO is attended annually by over 800 delegates and speakers who are keen to discuss key topics such as Pricing, Reserving, Modelling and the future of the insurance industry. GIRO 2018 was a huge success and we have opened bookings early for what we hope will be another brilliant conference at the EICC in Edinburgh this year. -
NOCA event - Discount Process Is The Problem
N/A27 September 2019Presenter Jon Spain
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Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP
Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL2 December 2019The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker. Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.
