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CMI Working Paper 105

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2017

CMI Working Paper 105 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2017. An updated version of Working Paper 105 was released in May 2018 to correct errors in the Summary, Section 7 and the References.

An updated version of the CMI_2017 software, v02, was released in August 2018 to allow the "live link" to continue to work following changes to the Human Mortality Database website.  This change does not affect the CMI_2017 projections.

A Briefing note on CMI_2017 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides an overview of the latest version of the Model and is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2017. Its method is the same as CMI_2016 apart from using an updated dataset, and a minor change to the method used to construct the dataset.

Core Projections generated by CMI_2017 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2016 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 105 contains numerical results from CMI_2017, and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. These are updated versions of Working Papers 98 and 99. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2017 dataset.

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at Projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 3 April 2018, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation is available from the SIAS website.

Documents

View the previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model