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Subscriptions to CMI Limited for 2019/20: changes to Terms and Conditions

CMI is writing to current Subscribers advising the Subscriptions for 2019/20 and changes to Terms and Conditions of Use. For more details, visit the About the CMI page.

Mortality projections

  • The Mortality Projections Committee will change the Core value of the period smoothing parameter, Sĸ, from 7.5 to 7 in CMI_2018. Working Paper 116 describes the outcome of the consultation on this change.

  • The Q4 2018 mortality monitor (dated January 2019) is now available. Following consultation, we have retained the method proposed in CMI Working Paper 111, but have extended our description and charts of results.

  • The CMI is currently advertising for a new Chair of the Mortality Projections Committee; this is a key role within the CMI with a substantial time commitment. The deadline for applications is 28 February 2019.

  • Working Paper 115 was published in December 2018. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model. This paper is available to Authorised Users only.

  • The CMI_2017 software was updated in December 2018 to allow the smoothing parameters to be adjusted for populations of different sizes, as described in Working Paper 115. This change does not affect the CMI_2017 projections.

  • An updated version of the software user guide has been issued to reflect the updates made to the software.

  • Working Paper 111 contains a provisional analysis of mortality in England & Wales based on data to 28 September 2018, and describes the methods that we intend to use to monitor this quarterly in future. We ask that any feedback on our proposals is sent to projections@cmilimited.co.uk by 30 November 2018, so that it can be considered in time for the next release, due in January 2019. The working paper is publicly available.

  • CMI_2017 was published in March 2018, accompanied by Working Paper 105, which was revised in May 2018. The Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2017. You must be an authorised user to access the Model and the accompanying documents.
     
  • A separate Briefing note on CMI_2017 has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies and is publicly available.
     
  • The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 3 April 2018, following the release of CMI_2017, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). The meeting discussed recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation is available from the  SIAS website.

Annuitant mortality

  • Working Paper 117 was published in January 2019. This paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment over the period 2011 to 2016. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • The results originally issued alongside Working Paper 117 included an allowance for improvements (as described in Section 3.4 of the paper). These were replaced on 14 February to improve the clarity of the description (the results themselves are unchanged) and additional results without improvements were also released.
     
  • Whilst processing the data underlying Working Paper 117, we received resubmissions of data covering the years 2011-2014 data from several insurers. This has created some uncertainty around the dataset underlying both Working Paper 101 and Working Paper 112. We have reissued these papers with a prominent “health warning” to see Working Paper 117 before using either of these papers.

Assurances (critical illness and mortality)

  • Alongside Working Paper 108, a survey was sent to data contributors and other stakeholders seeking their views on data submissions and the prioritisation of future work. The Assurances Committee has considered responses to the survey and produced a response document, which outlines responses to the survey and intended future work.
     
  • Working Paper 110 was published in October 2018. This paper is aimed at actuaries involved in the pricing and financial management of term assurances and whole of life policies. It sets out areas that should be considered when using the CMI Mortality Projections Model and its core assumptions in the context of protection portfolios. We would welcome feedback, preferably by 31 December 2018, to help us determine whether we undertake further work in this area.  The paper is available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • Working Paper 108 was published in June 2018. This paper describes the experience of term assurances in the years 2011 to 2015. Accompanying spreadsheets show summary and detailed results. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.
     
  • These results are described as “interim” as the Committee is keen to receive further term assurances data for 2011-2017 to allow final "all offices" results to be produced. A brief summary of data requirements is available on the CMI data page.

Income protection

  • Working Paper 109 was published in July 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed “IP06” claim inceptions graduations. The paper an accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only.

  • Individual IP “All offices” experience results for the 2007-2010 quadrennium were released in March 2017 alongside Working Paper 96. The working paper describes the experience and updates some of the analysis by cause of sickness contained in Working Paper 72. A database of individual IP experience by cause of sickness, spanning 1991-2010, was also released. The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all. 
     
  • Supplementary analyses to those included in Working Paper 96 were released in Working Paper 102 in August 2017. These consider IP experience in 2003-2010 by benefit amount and policy duration, two factors not included in regular analyses. The paper is available to authorised users only. An executive summary of the paper is available to all.

Self-administered pension schemes (SAPS) mortality

  • The “S3” Series mortality tables were issued in December 2018 alongside Working Paper 113. The working paper summarises feedback on the consultation and describes the final tables. You must be an Authorised User to access the paper and associated outputs. 

  • A webinar that explains the background to the S3 tables is now available to IFoA members. View the webinar

  • A separate briefing note on the “S3” Series mortality tables has also been issued. This is aimed at those receiving advice based on the tables, such as pension scheme trustees, and is publicly available.

  • Working Paper 107 was published in June 2018. The working paper contains a consultation on the proposed graduations of the “S3” Series mortality tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

  • Working Paper 104 was published in January 2018. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2017, covering the period 2009 to 2016. The Committee intends to use this dataset as the dataset underlying the “S3” Series tables. You must be an authorised user to access this paper, although an Executive Summary is available to all.
     
  • Working Paper 86 was published in November 2015. This paper presents an investigation into the mortality experience by industry classification of pensioners of self-administered pension schemes covering the period 2006 to 2013.You must be an authorised user to access this paper.

High Age Mortality

  • Working Paper 106 was published in June 2018. The working paper describes methods for, and analyses the results of determining populations at high ages, and extending graduating mortality rates to high ages. This paper has been made publicly available.

  • Supplementary material to CMI Working Paper 100 was published in October 2017. Following requests from Subscribers, a supplementary note has been issued detailing the framework for extending graduated mortality rates to higher ages together with a spreadsheet containing illustrative mortality rates from applying the method to selected tables from the CMI’s “08” Series and “S2” Series. The note is publicly-available but the spreadsheet is only available to authorised users.
     
  • Working Paper 100 was published in June 2017. The working paper illustrates alternative methods of estimating population exposures at high ages, presents analysis of mortality at the oldest ages and describes a framework for setting mortality rates at high ages for portfolio graduations. This paper has been made publicly available
     
  • Working Paper 85 was published in October 2015. The Working Paper presents the initial findings of the High Age Mortality Working Party. The Working Party was established to investigate issues relating to the estimation of mortality at very high ages. Alongside the report, the CMI is also releasing a reading list for users who would like to read more around this issue. The paper and reading list are publicly available.

Unisex mortality rates

The CMI has produced a set of unisex mortality rates that are intended for:

  • actuaries undertaking Transfer Value Analysis in accordance with COBS 19.1 of the FCA Sourcebook
  • actuaries preparing projections for Key Features Illustrations in accordance with COBS 13 Annex 2 of the FCA Sourcebook, and
  • actuaries producing Statutory Money Purchase Illustrations in accordance with the FRC's Actuarial Standards Technical Memorandum TM1. 

Note that an updated set of rates was issued in December 2018 including values applicable for the year commencing 6 April 2019.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • ARC Event on Periodical Payment Orders

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ
    20 February 2019

    Few spaces available

    The IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) is convening a research event on the subject of Periodical Payment Orders (PPOs) in late February 2019.

  • IFRS17 Workshop, 21 February

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    21 February 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA Logo for EventsThe Life Board and Life Lifelong Learning Sub-committee are running this half-day workshop on IFRS 17.

    They will provide a detailed understanding of the key concepts of the standard, as well as discuss how implementation will impact people, process and systems.  They will also share views on how the new standard will change the way insurers are viewed in the market, and share perspectives from within and outside of the profession.

     

  • Data Science: Opportunities for Actuaries

    The IFoA's first virtual event   
    26 February 2019 - 28 February 2019

    Spaces available

    The IFoA are launching their first virtual conference on the topic of Data Science, that is free to attend. This is an exciting and forward thinking move to reach members all over the world and to share knowledge and discuss developments and techniques within data science.

  • Leicester Actuarial Science Society presents the 5th Annual Worshipful Company of Actuaries Lecture

    The University of Leicester, Ken Edwards Lecture Theatre 3 (see map and directions)
    27 February 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA President-Elect, John Taylor will discuss his work on 'robo advice' and the implications of technology for the future of the profession, but also his thoughts about the immediate priorities for the actuarial profession based on his first year with the Presidential Team. 

    The Worshipful Company of Actuaries will also be explaining their work and presenting two prizes: one each to the best performing 2nd year and 3rd year BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science student at the University during the session.

  • ARC: ERM Results Launch Event

    Staple inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    28 February 2019

    Fully booked.

     

    This event is now full. We do operate a waiting system for this event should there become availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.

     

  • SIAS Event: Challenges and Opportunities for Actuaries Working in Data Science

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    4 March 2019

    Spaces available

    This talk will present examples of the use of data science in the General Insurance and Health and Care practice areas. It will highlight some of the opportunities and challenges for actuaries in using the latest data science techniques in these fields.

    1. Lisa Balboa will present on using predictive analytics to improve health care forecasting.
    2. Alexander Hanks will present a practical example of training a neural network to fit curves to general insurance claims data.
  • Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - London

    Ect Venues, 200 Aldersgate, St. Pauls, London EC1A 4HD
    5 March 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA event AllThis event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018.  Book now to ensure your place.

  • Life and F&I One Day Workshop

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    11 March 2019

    Spaces available

    IFoA Event Logo AllThis cross-practice event for Life actuaries and those in finance and investments roles offers high-quality CPD with a series of thought-provoking presentations covering economics and financial markets, responsible investment, CMA review outcome, FCA requirements, asset analytics, and much more.

  • Spring Lecture 2019, Edinburgh - Sir John Curtice

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    13 March 2019

    Fully booked.

    In conjunction with the Scottish BoardThe Edinburgh and London venues are now full. However, you can still register here to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world. 
    We do operate a waiting system for each of the Edinburgh and London venues should there be availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
  • Spring Lecture 2019, Live stream at Staple Inn - Professor Sir John Curtice

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    13 March 2019

    Fully booked.

     
    In conjunction with the Scottish BoardThe Edinburgh and London venues are now full. However, you can still register here  to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world. 
    We do operate a waiting system for each of the Edinburgh and London venues should there be availability which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
  • Sessional Meeting: Investment risk for long term investors - risk measurement approaches

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    18 March 2019

    Spaces available

    The term ‘investment risk’ is often used loosely, and frequently confused with the notion of short term price volatility, particularly for equity instruments. For the long term investor, however, what is most apposite is the ability to meet future real cash flows as they become due.

  • Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - Edinburgh

    Apex Grassmarket Hotel, 31-35 Grassmarket, Edinburgh EH1 2HS
    19 March 2019

    Spaces available

    This event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018.  Book now to ensure your place.

  • KSS event - FinTech and The Actuarial Profession

    Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
    20 March 2019

    Spaces available

    This KSS talk from FinTech Scotland's CEO will explore the mission to create an integrated Fintech ecosystem through provision of funding, support, infrastructure and talent that recognises and responds to the needs of all stakeholders - and the overarching aim for Scotland to be one of the top 5 Fintech global leaders by 2020.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (26 March 19)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    26 March 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (16 April 19)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    16 April 2019

    Fully booked.

    Please register here to join the wait list

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • TIGI 2019 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)

    Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Place, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4LE
    25-26 April 2019
    Spaces available

    This General Insurance CPD offering has been changed from former years of individual one day seminars to include individual sessions for IFRS 17, Pricing, Capital Modelling and Reserving over a two-day event  packaged as Technical Issues in General Insurance, providing attendees with a varied program . The event is suitable for anyone who works, or are interested, in these areas.

  • Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (30 April 19)

    IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA
    30 April 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2019, Chengdu

    Crowne Plaza Chengdu Panda Garden, Poly Park 198, No. 1980 ShuLong Avenue,Xindu District, Chengdu
    09-10 May 2019
    Spaces available

    IfoA Logo for eventsOffering a diverse selection of plenary sessions and cross-practice workshops, the annual Asia Conference is the perfect opportunity to discover and discuss current and developing actuarial topics in Asia, whilst providing excellent opportunity to grow your network of contacts.

  • CILA 2019

    30 Euston Square, London NW1 2FB
    14 May 2019

    Spaces available

    CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual Life calendar. It is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe.

  • Risk and Investment one day Conference 2019

    Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, Strand, London WC2N 5HX
    20-21 May 2019
    Spaces available

    This year's Risk and Investment Conference will be taking place at Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, London.

    To book your place click here.

     

  • Sessional Research Event - Saving for Retirement: Rules of Thumb

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    20 May 2019

    Spaces available

    How much does the average person need to save over a full working life to provide a decent retirement income? We call this the Lifetime Pension Contribution (LPC) and have attempted to quantify it.

  • Professional Skills Training - London (12 June 19)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    12 June 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019.  This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

  • NED Event: Behavioural Finance and Boards

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    18 June 2019

    Spaces available

    Substantial work has been undertaken in the field of behavioural finance to explore the psychological factors affecting investment decisions made by individuals.  In contrast, “behavioural” factors (such as politics or human psychology) affecting decisions and actions made by institutional investors, such as insurers or pension schemes, are less understood.

  • Pensions Conference 2019

    Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD
    18-19 June 2019
    Spaces available

    This year's Pensions Conference will be taking place at the Bristol Marriott City Centre.

  • Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019

    Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ
    19 June 2019

    Spaces available

    CIGI will provide an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers, each providing their insight and knowledge on a range of topics.  The programme will be broad in nature, so will be of most value to those with some experience in the industry. 

  • Professional Skills Training - London (25 June 19)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    25 June 2019

    Spaces available

    A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.